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11/22/2004 Archived Entry: "Prophecy"
Posted by CKL @ 10:36 AM PST

Jakob Nielsen sees the future:

"Narrowcasting and one-to-one media are what the Web is all about: providing exactly what individual users want in each individual moment. Narrowcasting is also what makes search marketing so effective. Rather than blast uniform messages randomly, a search ad is seen only by people actively looking for the exact thing being sold. Traditional mass media will diminish in importance: TV networks, for example, are irrelevant when you're picking shows from a menu."

This is already true in my household: because of TiVo, DeeAnn doesn't know and doesn't care which network broadcasts a particular show. As far as she's concerned, Desperate Housewives and Gilmore Girls could be on the same channel. It doesn't matter. Television's distribution model is broken, and TiVo fixes it for us.

Back to Jakob:

"In the physical world, you win by being big ... In the virtual world, you win by being good ... but human behavior and social institutions are slow to change."

And never underestimate the power of FUD.

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